Spey Pages banner
1 - 20 of 24 Posts

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Definitely too early to predict 2022 run to Columbia system, however since 2017 when run really spiraled down, a trend in early June have been followed in the rest of summer

So far run is significantly better then disastrous run of 2021 and very poor in 2018-2020. Noticeable unclipped fish is better than 10 years average.
TOTAL for 2022 as of June, 7, 2022

Rectangle Font Material property Parallel Pattern
Slope Rectangle Font Parallel Plot
Rectangle Slope Font Parallel Plot
 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #4 ·
This link also inches daily number and daily average


I assume it is either 2010-2019 average or 2012-2021 average .

Definitely NOT 10 years ago.

from the link:


This graph compares the current year, last year and ten year average counts and will not work until there is data for the site selected.
 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #6 · (Edited)
Annual Totals. I think unclipped fish number is included in the total ( Steelhead; wild + hatchery )

Pacific conditions ( surface temp, food abundance)


One of the more important food sources for young steelhead and smaller fish are copepods. Not all copepods are created equal. Northern copepods tend to be larger and fat-rich providing smaller fish important calories

In 2017-8 Pacific conditions were below normal. In 2019 were horrible ( super weak runs from N. California to Skeena/Nass in 2021). IN 2020 Pacific conditions improved noticeably and in 2021 were excellent. And so it is reasonable to assume that in 2022 would see some rebound, specially in 2 salt fish.
In Skeena, a larger smolts ( over 20 cm) can survive better, even in 2019 and many larger smolts returns for the first time after 3 years ( Kispiox, Babine, upper main Skeena).
So poor smolts to adult survival in 2019 does not necessary means low number of 3+ salt fish. Also some fish can skip first migration for spawning, if they have not enough fat. The most dominant factor is smolts survival in the first several months in the salt water.



Font Rectangle Parallel Number Screenshot
Rectangle Font Parallel Screenshot Number
 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #13 ·

As of June 11, 2022.
Total ( hatchery + unclipped) patter is similar



Rectangle Slope Line Font Plot
 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #15 ·
So far the Grand Predator is not sending its trawlers toward the Northern Pacific and Bering Sea............

China's super trawlers are stripping the ocean bare as its hunger for seafood grows


 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #22 ·
Is this even possible. The last few days Steelhead on Boneville was gaining momentum and exploded yesterday : It is mostly hatchery out of chart. Unclipped/Wild is in line with 10 years average:


Product Font Rectangle Screenshot Parallel
Rectangle Slope Font Parallel Plot
 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #23 ·
Can anyone confrim if June component on Boneville is mostly 1 year salt. After 2016-19 poor ocean conditions for juvenile Steelhead ( water temperature, food) and horrible in 2019, year 2020 was favorable and 2021 was best in 20 years
 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #24 ·
For some reason June 27 numbers for Columbia/Boneville are not reported but yesterday passage was strong overall and for unclipped Steelhead
 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #25 ·
Steelhead Bonneville now is predominantly Skamania fish, which are primarily 2 Ocean fish. Fingers crossed . So far so good. Most importantly it is hopefully indication of better smolts survival conditions in Pacific.

2020 there were finally favorable, so better 2022 run makes sense. 2021 were excellent and best in 25 years so next year should be even better.
 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #30 ·
This link have cumulative numbesr for all species at all dams ( this year, last and last 10 years average ) and is updated at 7 am PST:
Boneville ( BON) is an indicator for the entire Columbia Drainage

 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #33 ·
Skeena Tyee Chinook and Sockeye numbers are good too.. lets hope steelhead will come in good numbers as well.
Over the past few weeks lots of f Steelheads on Bonneville was 2 salt Skamania , which comes from 2020 smolts class entering Pacific in late Spring, 2020. According to NOAA ( food supply, water temp.) conditions for juvenile salmonides near Oregone and Washington coast were finally favorable in 2020 !!!!!! And so significant improvement on Columbia coincided with favorable conditions in 2020..............

In 2021 the conditions for juvenile salmonides were excellent and best since 1998, the record was initiated.
 

·
Registered
Skeena, Alaska, CF Burkheimer, Olson, Teno, Danielsson, Guideline, Nextcast.
Joined
·
258 Posts
Discussion Starter · #35 ·
July, 7th.
I think Italian software is generating these fish................
Rectangle Slope Font Parallel Plot



Rectangle Slope Plot Line Font
 
1 - 20 of 24 Posts
Top