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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Definitely too early to predict 2022 run to Columbia system, however since 2017 when run really spiraled down, a trend in early June have been followed in the rest of summer

So far run is significantly better then disastrous run of 2021 and very poor in 2018-2020. Noticeable unclipped fish is better than 10 years average.
TOTAL for 2022 as of June, 7, 2022

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This may be a dumb question, but is the "10 year" ; a) an average based on the counts of the past 10 years , b) a total count of the last 10 years, or c) the count from 10 years ago (2012)? It doesn't really specify.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
This link also inches daily number and daily average


I assume it is either 2010-2019 average or 2012-2021 average .

Definitely NOT 10 years ago.

from the link:


This graph compares the current year, last year and ten year average counts and will not work until there is data for the site selected.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 · (Edited)
Annual Totals. I think unclipped fish number is included in the total ( Steelhead; wild + hatchery )

Pacific conditions ( surface temp, food abundance)


One of the more important food sources for young steelhead and smaller fish are copepods. Not all copepods are created equal. Northern copepods tend to be larger and fat-rich providing smaller fish important calories

In 2017-8 Pacific conditions were below normal. In 2019 were horrible ( super weak runs from N. California to Skeena/Nass in 2021). IN 2020 Pacific conditions improved noticeably and in 2021 were excellent. And so it is reasonable to assume that in 2022 would see some rebound, specially in 2 salt fish.
In Skeena, a larger smolts ( over 20 cm) can survive better, even in 2019 and many larger smolts returns for the first time after 3 years ( Kispiox, Babine, upper main Skeena).
So poor smolts to adult survival in 2019 does not necessary means low number of 3+ salt fish. Also some fish can skip first migration for spawning, if they have not enough fat. The most dominant factor is smolts survival in the first several months in the salt water.



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Better numbers than we last year and the year before. That said, the last ten years, of which the average is calculated, have had a number of the worst years on record. My point is our numerical expectations have diminished over the years. All that said, it is great to see the unclipped numbers at this level.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·

As of June 11, 2022.
Total ( hatchery + unclipped) patter is similar



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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
So far the Grand Predator is not sending its trawlers toward the Northern Pacific and Bering Sea............

China's super trawlers are stripping the ocean bare as its hunger for seafood grows


 

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Keep your fingers crossed!

If I recall correctly for the Deschutes, Nothing until 7/15, and then opening up 10 days after 9,900 wild fish pass over Bonni. Then, there is a late, overwinter closure if there are low numbers over Sherar's ladder.
 
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