Flooding - Spey Pages
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post #1 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-12-2020, 02:10 PM Thread Starter
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Flooding

We are having a serious high water event here at the moment. Usually we don't see this until spring. It's extremely high and still going up.

This is one of my usual spots. There is supposed to be an island out there, it's gone.

Dan
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post #2 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-12-2020, 02:14 PM Thread Starter
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For reference for our American members 600m3/s is approx. 21,000cuft/s.

Dan
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post #3 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-12-2020, 03:13 PM
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That is some serious water !!
I passed over my home river today and it too is over flowing it's banks ... not good at this time of year.


Mike
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post #4 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-12-2020, 05:29 PM
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I welcome the high water this time of the year vs the ice and slush. These warmer winters are nice due to fact of more fishing time for myself. There have been many years of not fishing for months because of iced over rivers.

Andrew
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post #5 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-13-2020, 06:53 PM Thread Starter
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River Update

We should be cresting tonight. We hope.

Dan
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post #6 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 01:58 AM
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Flooding, I've seen some over my life time but I think it may become common as time goes on.

There's no way I will type out a full version but I'll offer a synopsis and I hope you won't mind Dan.

I don't know how familiar you may be with the term or concept of, 'the hydrologic cycle' but here's what I believe many of my friends down south will be experiencing as time goes on...…….

Remember all that stuff on the edge of the news about extreme heat and drought in Alaska and other Arctic regions Greenland & etc this past few years?

The result of just this past years hot weather all over this part of the globe resulted in billions of gallons of water being released from where it has been trapped as ice for tens of thousands of years in some instances. Think in terms of many hundreds of millions of tons of water...….

Whether that water gathered in ponds and lakes - rivers and creeks - whether it filled ancient basins that have been dry for millenniums or if it emptied into the oceans the result was an increase in surface area of the earth which is covered with water.

Think on that concept a moment, river gets a bit higher it also gets wider hence more surface area. With that in mind consider our warming environment and the process of evaporation. More surface area of water + warmer temps = increased evaporation levels.

The water enters the atmosphere as vapor and then travels many hundreds (sometimes thousands) of miles high in that atmosphere but will indeed fall back to earth in some form of precipitation. The increase in the amount of fluid H20 on the planet will be causing a very noticeable increase in the frequency and amounts of rains and snow falling in various parts of the world.

Many people (I believe) scoff at the suggestion of climate change or a global warming because Miami or Manhattan have not been submerged by a rapid rise in sea level.

That's not how this is gonna work. Consider if you will the vastness of the oceans (all of them) and the extent in linear miles of shorelines globally. It will take years more of this accelerated melting of our planets ice stores before there will be a dramatic rise in sea level, however...……

With each warming season over our arctic zones even more water will be set free and it will then become a part of that increased surface area that will fuel the heightened evaporation levels due to additional H2O being available and so our rains will continue to increase both in frequency and volume of water being moved and then precipitated as the hydrologic cycle runs its course.

The end result given that this warming does not somehow come to a halt will inevitably be a drastic rise in sea level which of course will result in …….. wait for it …… wait …… Additional surface area of H2O to feed the evaporation stage of the hydrologic cycle.

Cheerful stuff that goes on behind my eyes huh?

I didn't write this suggesting it is real, we all know there are countless people who will call me misguided and wrong. Me? I have just enough education and life experience as a careful observer in the field to come up with such dangerous thoughts all by myself. I never have heard or read a single word of the scenario I have described anywhere. That all just happens in my head and there's a hell of a lot more in there too not much of which is especially cheerful stuff.

Sorry for the trip to bummer land

Ard

Kill the hens you kill the river.

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post #7 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 06:56 AM
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Hope everyone checked their sump pumps !!
My sister-in-law did some "spring cleaning" in her basement laundry room and accidentally bumped into the sump float unit ... their basement flooded 2 days later.

That is a lot of water !!


Mike

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post #8 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 07:08 AM
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let me know when you wanna swap for fire, mate.

cheers,
shawn

Shawn,

First off Iím not your mate.
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post #9 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 09:59 AM
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The Midwest has had a lot of rain the last few years; I shouldn't complain as some places would love that. Our rivers here in Indiana were blown out last year until about late July. It seems to happening more often. I've learned to get on the rivers early, March, sometimes you can hook into a nice 4 or 5 lb smallmouth. I've also started fishing the smaller creeks more as they recover faster.
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post #10 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 10:28 AM Thread Starter
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Current graph.

Dan
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post #11 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 11:42 AM
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is the Lower Grand typically wadable? seems like it would be based on the average cfs
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post #12 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 11:55 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Westhop74 View Post
is the Lower Grand typically wadable? seems like it would be based on the average cfs
Yes, there is a ton of wadable water here. Currently the river is about 5-8ft higher than normal. Where you would have to slide down a bank to enter you would need to wade through 2-3ft of water just to get to the bank.

Dan

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post #13 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 12:00 PM
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That’s a lot of water...

Good to see the flood levees are holding up.
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post #14 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 12:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eriefisher View Post
Yes, there is a ton of wadable water here. Currently the river is about 5-8ft higher than normal. Where you would have to slide down a bank to enter you would need to wade through 2-3ft of water just to get to the bank.

Dan
Thanks Dan, I used to get to Michigan once in a while; really like it up there. I'm in the market for a 13ft 7wt to swing some flies; need to get that done.

Rivers down here muddy up so easy compared to the sand base in MI. I'm sure it will be fishable fairly soon. thanks again for the info.
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post #15 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-14-2020, 12:34 PM
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Ard, you nailed it. There are a lot more details but your reasoning is pretty sound on the subject. Your conversion of ice to water for the planet is low. Greenland alone lost 300 gigatons in 2019. Ice loss estimates for Antacrtica are not so easy to come by but are likely to significantly exceed those from Greenland. The last time (4 million years ago) CO2 approached the current level in the atmosphere (~400 ppm), sea level was ~65 ft higher than today.

Look at a topographic map of your home river if it empties into the ocean, find the 65 ft contour and that is where the estuary or delta will be in the future.
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Last edited by Tom.B; 01-14-2020 at 01:20 PM.
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